Main Sequence: Poll: More Than Half Refuse To Believe Media Efforts To Convince Dumb-Asses That U.S. Is In Recession When In Fact It Is Not

Thursday, October 18, 2007

Poll: More Than Half Refuse To Believe Media Efforts To Convince Dumb-Asses That U.S. Is In Recession When In Fact It Is Not

From CNN:

Poll: Nearly half think U.S. in recession
WASHINGTON (CNN) — Nearly half of Americans think the U.S. economy is in a recession — close to 46 percent of those surveyed in a new CNN-Opinion Research Corporation Poll out Thursday morning say the country’s economy is in a recession while 51 percent of those questioned say no.

The poll finds a major difference of opinion between black and white Americans — 69 percent of black Americans questioned in the survey say the country’s in a recession while only 42 percent of white Americans feel the same way.
According to CNN’s Ali Velshi, the National Bureau of Economic Research defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. A recession begins just after the economy reaches a peak of activity and ends as the economy reaches its trough. Between trough and peak, the economy is in an expansion. Expansion is the normal state of the economy; most recessions are brief and they have been rare in recent decades.”

The recession numbers may be having an impact on President Bush’s approval rating.

Thanks to CNN for taking the time to define what a recession is. It occurs to me that statistics like GDP, real income, employment rates, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales and the like, are all numbers that economic experts (such as at CNN) would have at their fingertips. If the USA was really in a recession, I'd think they would have published some of these stats to support this vague, nebulous feeling that close to 46% of those polled have. I'm mean, wouldn't that be newsworthy - a full 54% of those polled think we're not in a recession, even though the numbers prove them wrong.

Let's take a look at some of these statistics, courtesy of the US Departments of Commerce and Labor:

GDP: Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 3.8 percent in the second quarter of 2007, according to final estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.6 percent.
Income: Personal income increased $40.2 billion, or 0.3 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $37.2 billion, or 0.4 percent, in August, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $54.8 billion, or 0.6 percent. In July, personal income increased $61.5 billion, or 0.5 percent, DPI increased $60.3 billion, or 0.6 percent, and PCE increased $37.3 billion, or 0.4 percent, based on revised estimates.
Employment: Employment rose in September, and the unemployment rate was essentially unchanged at 4.7 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Departmentof Labor reported today. Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 110,000 following increases of 93,000 in July and 89,000 in August (as revised). In September, health care, food services, and professional and technical services continued to add jobs, while employment trended down in manufacturing and construction. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent.
Production: Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) increased $94.7 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $16.5 billion in the first quarter. Current-production cash flow (net cash flow with inventory valuation and capital consumption adjustments) -- the internal funds available to corporations for investment -- increased $37.4 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $0.2 billion in the first.
Sales: Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 3.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the first. Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 2.4 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the first.

Does that sound like a recession to you? I didn't think so.

So, why not report these numbers? Were I a cynic I might surmise it's because they show that we're not in a recession - at least not by any definition of "recession" accepted by a rational person with even the most rudimentary understanding of economics - and the sole reason for this article is to make people, who are either too lazy or too stupid to do their homework, believe we are - and quickly, too, 'cause the 2008 is coming up! Indeed who, other than a cynic, would ever question the motives of a virtuous bastion of journalistic integrity such as CNN?